When a community is unsafe, everything else in the economy suffers. Businesses lose productivity, investors lose confidence, and ordinary people lose their sense of freedom. For years, private security companies have been the silent backbone of South Africa’s stability, but their methods have remained largely unchanged. Guards on the ground. Cameras on poles. And long response times in between.
That era is ending.
The aerial advantage
Drones have introduced a new dimension to private security: a view from above that is fast, intelligent, and relentless. From mining operations to residential estates, we are witnessing a structural shift away from reactive guarding toward predictive, data-driven surveillance.
At Aerial Works, we have logged thousands of BVLOS patrol hours over high-risk areas. The impact has been profound. Crimes that once thrived in darkness are now visible, traceable, and often preventable. But as our drone coverage expanded, another phenomenon emerged: crime displacement. Offenders adapt. They move to less protected areas, change tactics, or strike at different times. The drones are winning battles, but the environment remains dynamic.
Understanding crime displacement
This behaviour is not random. In my doctoral research, I explore how criminals adjust to new security technologies using agent-based modelling, a computational approach that simulates interactions between drones, security teams, and offenders. By integrating machine learning, we can observe how both sides learn from each other. Drones evolve patrol routes, and criminals change their timing. The result is a living system, not a static map.
Understanding this adaptive cycle is vital for every security manager and policymaker. When a new drone patrol reduces incidents in one zone, where does that crime go? Does it vanish, or simply shift two kilometres down the fence line? Our models suggest that intelligent deployment, guided by data rather than routine, can minimise displacement and achieve genuine deterrence.
The business case for intelligence
Security is no longer just a compliance expense; it is a strategic investment. Each drone flight produces high-resolution data that feeds predictive analytics: heat maps, trend lines, and risk models. When managed properly, these insights reduce false alarms, lower insurance exposure, and allow better use of limited ground resources.
Put differently, drones are turning private security from a cost centre into a data-intelligence business. The companies that recognise this shift will lead the next decade of the industry.
Where technology meets ethics
With great visibility comes great responsibility. As surveillance expands, so must our commitment to ethical data governance. In South Africa, POPIA sets clear limits, and rightly so. My view is simple: responsible technology earns trust. Irresponsible technology loses it. The legitimacy of drone-based security will depend on how transparently we manage information and how clearly we demonstrate its benefits to the communities we protect.
The future: predictive, not reactive
The old model of “see and send” is being replaced by “predict and prevent”. Drones, supported by artificial intelligence and reinforcement learning, are teaching us where crime might occur next, not just where it happened yesterday. The implications for South Africa’s private security industry are significant: fewer losses, faster response, safer communities.
We are not merely flying drones. We are building the future architecture of safety, one dataset, one patrol, one decision at a time.
About the Author
Bertus van Zyl is Managing Director of Aerial Works and Sky Robots and is completing a Doctor of Business Administration at Tshwane University of Technology on machine learning and agent-based modelling in crime displacement.